Beware All Duterte's Backed Candidates  are  Manchurian; Experts warn of China-backed candidates in 2022 PH elections

There may be several 'Manchurian candidates' in the presidential race in 2022 as China tries to tighten its grip on the Philippines, say military and diplomatic experts

Experts in military strategy and international diplomacy urge Filipinos to gear up against China’s influence in the next national elections in May 2022.

As China hedges its interests in the Western Pacific, it will use a combination of “hard” and “sharp power” to intimidate and co-opt countries standing in the way of its plan to dominate the region, said former Navy vice commander Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong in a virtual forum on Tuesday, June 9.

“Hard power” is China’s military muscle-flexing in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, which includes the portion Filipinos call the West Philippine Sea.

“Sharp power” is China’s combined use of diplomacy, propaganda, and economic leverage to manipulate the policies, and influence or undermine the political system of another country.

The Philippines is already getting a taste of both, Ong said. Chinese warships, coast guard vessels, and militia boats criss-cross the West Philippine Sea and even internal waters undeterred and unmatched by the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard – a clear example of hard power.

China’s sharp power is at play as it donates boatloads of medical equipment and supplies for the government’s pandemic response, penetrates state media and educational institutions, and infiltrates the economy through businesses and acquired real estate.

With these, the one thing left in China’s “unrestricted warfare” to get the Philippines to bend to its will is to put the leaders it wants in power.

“If we want to counter China’s sharp power, then we should prepare for the national elections in 2022. If we deny our share of the responsibility as citizens in preserving our way of life, then we might face an electoral contest not among political parties but against China’s preferred candidates,” said Ong, now Professor of Praxis at the Ateneo School of Government.

This would be the “ultimate weapon in China’s toolkit” he added, noting that Beijing already tried using this tactic in elections in Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia.

China aims to keep surrounding countries friendly or otherwise destabilize them and keep them weak to ensure they won’t form alliances to counter its interests, Ong said in the forum hosted by the Stratbase ADR Institute.

‘More than two Manchurian candidates’

China will want a friendly president in Malacañang and to do this, it may attempt to back several candidates to ascertain its prospects.

“Some of us believe that there will be more than two Manchurian candidates. So whoever they will field, we have to unite under one candidate,” said Ambassador Laura del Rosario, former Undersecretary for International Economic Affairs at the Department of Foreign Affairs.

A Manchurian candidate is one who acts in the interests of a country or political party other than their own.

To ward off a victory by a candidate fielded by China, Del Rosario said Filipinos should support a single candidate strong enough to beat the others.

“The problem is, even our businessmen bet on everybody...just to make sure they’re safe,” she added.

China’s contempt for weak states

The problem with the current administration’s subservient attitude is it provokes China to further pounce on the Philippines.

“China has a contemptuous attitude towards weak nations, so we have to stand up,” said Del Rosario, who is currently president of Miriam College.

Defiance from relatively smaller states like Malaysia and Vietnam in a way earns China’s respect even if it initially retorts with bluster, she added.

“During the Aquino time I think they hated us, but in a way, I think they respected us for our strength of character and what we believed in,” Del Rosario said.

The administration of Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III took a resolute stance against China’s claims in the West Philippine Sea. It filed and won an international arbitration case against Beijing, which all but severed diplomatic ties with Manila at the time.

Despite President Rodrigo Duterte’s decidedly preferential policies toward China, its blockade of areas like Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal and the harassment of Filipino fishermen have nevertheless continued.

“The Duterte administration shows acquiescence does not bear fruit,” said Richard Heydarian, a nonresident fellow at Stratbase ADR Institute.

Renato de Castro, a trustee and program convenor at the institute, said Filipinos should make sure the 2022 national elections will be clean, so no “Manchurian candidate” would be able to cut in.

For Heydarian, robust defiance from an informed, patriotic public can keep the president in check, even if it’s the Manchurian candidate. If even “brazenly pro-China” Duterte has had to packpedal once in a while, as he did when he halted the repeal of a military pact with the US, then a vigilant public can do a lot to fend off an intrusive neighbor like China.

With Duterte, you can never be sure if he is joking, indulging in theatrics or dead serious when it’s about China. He blows hot and cold.

Last week, he warned Beijing that he would not withdraw Philippine ships from disputed waters, even if China killed him. The Philippines has two ships in the West Philippine Sea which were roving around Kalayaan islands and Mischief Reef.

“I will not retreat. Kill me if you want to kill me, I will be here. This is where our friendship will end,” Duterte warned.

Yet, just days before that, Duterte seemed to be appeasing China, specially after what he called was an offensive tweet from Foreign Secretary Teddyboy Locsin. Duterte said we owe China a debt of gratitude for the COVID vaccines they donated and sold us.

A political analyst from the Rand Corporation, a US defense think tank, wrote an article that seems to take Duterte’s moves at face value… that China might have lost the Philippines because of Beijing’s assertiveness in the West Philippine Sea.

There might be some of that, but I have a strong feeling Duterte theatrics is mainly what it is because the 2022 election is just around the corner. He cannot run for re-election, but he wants his anointed one to win for protection.

China is Duterte’s chink in his armor. If the opposition is able to picture Duterte or his anointed as China’s Manchurian candidate, that might just turn the incumbent advantage around.

Notice too that Duterte is not cursing the United States as much as he used to. He has to know Filipinos love the United States and hates China. Duterte’s China lapdog image has not dented his popularity so far, but it just might, specially if things get ugly at the WPS.

Last year, SWS surveyed 1,555 people and the US received a net trust rating of +42. “Net trust in the United States has been positive since SWS first surveyed it in December 1994.”

Net trust rating for China on the other hand, fell from “poor” to “bad” going down from -27 in December 2019 to -36 in July 2020. SWS said, “Net trust in China has been positive in only nine out of 53 surveys since SWS first surveyed it in August 1994.”

Filipinos are not amused when Duterte said he asked Xi Jinping to just make the Philippines a province of China. Neither are Filipinos happy to hear Duterte say he just loves Xi Jinping.

Filipinos understand Duterte when he says he doesn’t want a war we cannot win with China. But they also expect their President to speak up for our rights and not say our arbitral win was just a piece of paper that can be trashed.

It is difficult to see where this administration really is with China. Duterte says one thing, the defense and foreign affairs secretaries say another. Over the past weeks, Secretary Locsin has issued diplomatic protests over Chinese ships in the WPS almost daily.

Maybe there is a real turning point in the relationship, even with Duterte. The much hoped for economic aid from China has been puny compared to Japan.

Japan’s ODA, which consists of low-interest loans and grants, is worth $11.2 billion. China has only been able to come up with $600 million.

In a sense, Duterte tried to pimp the country by putting the arbitral decision on the back burner in exchange for Chinese economic aid. He took a hint from Cory-era former foreign secretary Raul Manglapus who said, with reference to the US, that “if rape is inevitable, lie back and enjoy it.” For Duterte with reference to China, he wants money too.

I don’t know why we get leaders like that. But we know from coverage of rape cases that the defense will always try to prove the victim stopped resisting at some point and enjoyed it. In dealing with world powers, our leaders ought to complain like hell nonstop when the powers are raping us.

In any case, the Rand analyst is of the view that “Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend, and the Philippines needs its long-standing security ally — the United States — after all.”

The Rand analyst thinks “Duterte’s Sept. 23, 2020 speech at the United Nations General Assembly was another indication he had turned the corner on China. He directly addressed the issue of South China Sea disputes by noting the 2016 ruling was ‘beyond compromise,’ adding ‘we firmly reject attempts to undermine it.’”

Sounds like Secretary Locsin wrote the speech, but Duterte read it. I am not sure the analyst is correct to say it showed Duterte’s position against China was hardening.

“Beijing has only itself to blame if it has lost the opportunity to pull the Philippines out of the US orbit. China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea has made it virtually impossible for Duterte to push his pro-China and anti-US agenda,” the analyst’s paper pointed out.

“Moreover, Beijing’s growing assertiveness has only made it more difficult for Duterte to overcome pervasive anti-Chinese sentiment among his own country’s population. Nor has he been able to assuage the concerns of the staunchly pro-US Philippine defense establishment, which sees China as Manila’s top threat…

“Duterte now has little room left to maneuver. China’s aggressive approach to the South China Sea has severely undermined the credibility of his pro-China policies.”

Has China really lost Duterte? Or are Duterte’s antics pure theatrics precleared with China? After all, Duterte once revealed that Xi Jinping promised to protect him from any plan to remove him from office. They are that close. BFF, it seems.

With so much at stake, it is talked about that China will likely finance a candidate next year. The Manchurian Candidate will likely be someone endorsed by Duterte. There is so much China needs to protect — from business to security, they must make sure Malacanang remains in friendly hands. Just in case Duterte follows the Marcos Coup strategy basing the threat of terrorism and stop the election.

The ranks of the military should be neutral, to favor the constitution to have a free honest election next year. PH can’t risk becoming an official or unofficial province of China.